06/08/2020

Russian policy often operates on a short-term, flexible basis. The initial goal may be to ensure that whatever his foibles, Lukashenko survives in 2020, and there is no Maidan style change of power in Belarus. The future is less certain because the campaign of Tsikhanouskaya has demonstrated convincingly that Belarusians want a change.

17/07/2020

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Telegram allows for the producing of common content for a Russian-speaking audience, which is especially numerous in the south-eastern regions of Ukraine and Belarus – the number one target for Kremlin’s active measures.

22/08/2020

Is Putin going to attack Belarus?

On August 14, 15, and 16 Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin had several phone calls to agree on the format of Russian assistance to handle the situations in Belarus. Russian assistance in the form of hybrid intervention was launched on approximately August 17. As our sources report, on August 18, two groups of Russian political, military, security, and media advisers arrived in Minsk from Moscow to take control over the situation in Belarus in key public and governing areas (media, social and political sector, army and security agenices). The operation was partially disguised as a celebration of Russian ambassador’s birthday party. As our internal sources in Russia report military intervention in the present situation of true social unrest was not considered possible.

Russian advisers now target all key fields of Belarusian life.

31/07/2020

The evolution of the Kremlin’s strategy towards Belarus

With the approach of the presidential elections, not only is the situation inside Belarus becoming more complicated, but so is Minsk’s foreign policy. Moreover, in connection with the history of the detained Russian mercenaries, Belarus’s relationship has become increasingly strained with Russia, and not only with the West.