Category: Partners Publications

19/11/2020

Andrei Yeliseyeu, Director of EAST Research Center (Warsaw), iSANS expert

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A selection of propaganda narratives about Belarus

The whole assortment of hundreds and thousands of propaganda stories revolve around a dozen original storylines.

To see the forest through the trees

Day after day, Russian national television stations, big news and multimedia agencies, and dozens of smaller pro-Kremlin sites churn out hours of audio and video and dozens to hundreds of stories about Belarus. Targeting a Belarusian audience, pro-Kremlin resources also communicate distinctively about events in other countries.

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08/09/2020

David J. Kramer, director of European and Eurasian studies at Florida International University’s Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affair

Vladimir Kobets, executive director of the International Strategic Action Network for Security

Popular protests against the authoritarian regime of Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus have left Western leaders anxious about how Russia will respond. Forceful intervention would not seem out of character for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has noted on state television that Lukashenko asked him to keep riot police at the ready in case “the situation gets out of control.” But such a course of action is almost certainly not Putin’s preference in Belarus. The Kremlin invaded and occupied territory in Georgia and Ukraine to prevent those countries from moving geopolitically westward. But in doing so, the Kremlin’s neoimperialists planted deep roots of resistance to Russian occupation and intensified popular support for Euro-Atlantic integration—especially among younger Georgians and Ukrainians. Belatedly, Moscow is learning that no amount of disinformation can reverse these trends.

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06/08/2020

Dr. David R. Marples is Distinguished University Professor, Department of History and Classics, University of Alberta, Canada, iSANS expert

Russian policy often operates on a short-term, flexible basis. The initial goal may be to ensure that whatever his foibles, Lukashenko survives in 2020, and there is no Maidan style change of power in Belarus. The future is less certain because the campaign of Tsikhanouskaya has demonstrated convincingly that Belarusians want a change.

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08/10/2020

Šimon Pinkas, Project Assistant at Prague Security Studies Institute

The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic has become a security challenge of global significance, one not limited to the medical dimension only. As Tedros A. Ghebreyesus, the World Health Organization Director-General, pointed out during the annual Munich Security Conference, the COVID-19 pandemic is accompanied by so-called “infodemics”. This term describes an upsurge in information related to the pandemic, of which a significant part is factually incorrect or outright manipulative. Infodemics can have a considerable impact on the ability of states to tackle the disease as pollution of the information space contributes to the hardships related to the governments’ ability to communicate effectively with its citizens. Without such communication, however, confused and scared citizens are likely to look for information on their own and become exposed to conspirators or alarmist voices.

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22/08/2020

Is Putin going to attack Belarus?

On August 14, 15, and 16 Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin had several phone calls to agree on the format of Russian assistance to handle the situations in Belarus. Russian assistance in the form of hybrid intervention was launched on approximately August 17. As our sources report, on August 18, two groups of Russian political, military, security, and media advisers arrived in Minsk from Moscow to take control over the situation in Belarus in key public and governing areas (media, social and political sector, army and security agenices). The operation was partially disguised as a celebration of Russian ambassador’s birthday party. As our internal sources in Russia report military intervention in the present situation of true social unrest was not considered possible.

Russian advisers now target all key fields of Belarusian life.

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